Analisis del Export-Led Growth hypothesis: Caso Ecuador

Christian Rosero Barzola, Cecilia Vélez Barros, Orly Carvache Franco, Melissa Rodríguez Herrera

Resumen


Uno de los principales debates que ha tenido lugar en las últimas décadas en el ámbito del
comercio internacional ha apuntado a si los países deberían seguir políticas comerciales
orientadas a proteger y fortalecer su aparato productivo, o por el contrario, deberían
promocionar su sector exportador para potenciar un mayor crecimiento económico. Este
paper analiza la relación entre las exportaciones y el PIB mediante una regresión simple usando
el estimador de MCO. Se pone a prueba la Export-Led Hypothesis al realizar un análisis de
series de tiempo con datos trimestrales del año 2001 al 2014 del país Ecuador de las variables
Formación de Capital Bruto, Exportaciones Petroleras y PIB neto de exportaciones. Los
resultados comprueban una fuerte relación entre el PIB y las exportaciones, pero demuestra
una relación negativa lo cual pone en evidencia la importancia no sólo de las exportaciones
en sí, sino la composición de las mismas.


Palabras clave


exportaciones, crecimiento económico, export-led growth, productividad.

Texto completo:

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