Ir para o menu de navegação principal Ir para o conteúdo principal Ir para o rodapé

Analisis del Export-Led Growth hypothesis: Caso Ecuador

PDF (Español)

Resumo

Uno de los principales debates que ha tenido lugar en las últimas décadas en el ámbito delcomercio internacional ha apuntado a si los países deberían seguir políticas comercialesorientadas a proteger y fortalecer su aparato productivo, o por el contrario, deberíanpromocionar su sector exportador para potenciar un mayor crecimiento económico. Estepaper analiza la relación entre las exportaciones y el PIB mediante una regresión simple usandoel estimador de MCO. Se pone a prueba la Export-Led Hypothesis al realizar un análisis deseries de tiempo con datos trimestrales del año 2001 al 2014 del país Ecuador de las variablesFormación de Capital Bruto, Exportaciones Petroleras y PIB neto de exportaciones. Losresultados comprueban una fuerte relación entre el PIB y las exportaciones, pero demuestrauna relación negativa lo cual pone en evidencia la importancia no sólo de las exportacionesen sí, sino la composición de las mismas.

Palavras-chave

exportaciones, crecimiento económico, export-led growth, productividad.


Biografia do Autor

Christian Rosero Barzola

Cecilia Vélez Barros

Orly Carvache Franco

Melissa Rodríguez Herrera


Referências

  1. Abu-Qarn, A., & Abu-Bader, S. (2004). The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA
  2. Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis. Applied Economics, 36(15),
  3. -1695.
  4. Aguado Moralejo, I., Echebarria Miguel, C., & Barrutia Legarreta, J. M. (2009). El
  5. Desarrollo Sostenible a lo largo de la Historia del Pensamiento Económico. Revista de
  6. Economía Mundial, 21, 87-110.
  7. Ahumada, H., & Sanguinetti, P. (1995). The export-led groeth hypothesis revisited: theory
  8. and evidence. Estudios de Economía, 327-355.
  9. Ahumada, H., & Sanguinetti, P. (1995). The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis revisited: Theory
  10. and Evidence. 327-355: Estudios de Economía.
  11. Alam, M. I. (2003). Manufactured Exports, Capital Goods Imports, and Economic Growth:
  12. Expierence of Mexico and Brazil. International Economic Journal, 17(4), 85-105.
  13. Attri, V. (1980). India’s Foreign and Economic Growth Since 1947. (unpublished Ph.D
  14. Thesis). Kurukshetra: Kurukshetra University.
  15. Awokuse, T. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-Led or Import.
  16. Led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
  17. Baharumshah, A. Z., & Almasaied, S. W. (January-February de 2009). Foreign Direct
  18. Investment and Economic Growth in Malaysia: Intreactions with Human Capital and
  19. Financial Deepening. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 45(1), 90-102.
  20. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Alse, J. (1993). Export Growth and Economic Growth: An
  21. Application of Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling. Journal of Developing Areas,
  22. (4), 535-542.
  23. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Economidou, C., & Gobinda-Goswami, G. (2005). Export Led Growth
  24. Hypothesis Revisited: A Panel Cointegration Approach. Scientific Journal of Administrative,
  25. -55.
  26. Bajo-Rubio, O., & Díaz-Roldán, C. (March de 2012). Do exports cause growth? Some
  27. evidence for the EU members. Post-Communist Economies, 24(1), 125-131.
  28. Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence. Journal of
  29. Development Economics, 5(2).
  30. Banco Central del Ecuador. (2014). Cuentas Nacionales.
  31. Banco Central del Ecuador. (2014). Cuentas Trimestrales 2014. Quito: Banco Central del
  32. Ecuador.
  33. Banco Central del Ecuador. (2014). Estadísticas Macroeconómicas: Presentación Coyuntural. Quito: Dirección de Estadística Económica.
  34. Barro, R. J., Mankiw, G. N., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Capital Mobility in Neoclassical
  35. Models of Growth. American Economic Review, 85, 103-15.
  36. Ben-David, D. (1993). Equalizing exchange: trade liberalization and income convergence.
  37. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 653-679.
  38. Bermejo, R. (2001). Economía Sostenible: Principios, conceptos e instrumentos. Bilbao:
  39. Bakeaz.
  40. Bifani, P. (1999). Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible. Madrid: IEPALA.
  41. Chow, P. (1987). Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical
  42. Evidence from NICs. Journal of Development Economics, 26(1), 55-63.
  43. Chuang, Y.-c. (1998). Learning by doing, the Technology Gap, and Growth. International
  44. Economic Review, 697-721.
  45. Domar, E. (1937). Expansion and Employment. American Economic Review, 37.
  46. Domar, E. (1946). Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment. Econometrica.
  47. Dreger, C., & Herzer, D. (2011). A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis.
  48. Berlin: Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung.
  49. Erfani, G. R. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. International
  50. advances in economic research.
  51. Espinosa Guzmán, R. (2014). Informe a la Nación 2014. Quito: Ministerio Coordinador de
  52. Producción, Empleo y Competitividad.
  53. Feder, G. (1983). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12.
  54. Ferguson, J. (1948). Historia de la Economía. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
  55. Fernandez Díaz, A., Parejo Gámir, J. A., & Rodríguez Sáiz, L. (2005). Politica Económica
  56. (Cuarta edición ed.). Madrid: McGraw-Hill.
  57. Findlay, R. (1984). Trade and Development: Theory and Asian Experience. Asian
  58. Development Review, 2(2), 23-42.
  59. Fondo Monetario Internacional. (17 de octubre de 2014). Perspectivas de la Economía
  60. Mundial. Obtenido de Boletín del FMI: http://www.imf.org/external/Spanish/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/NEW100714AS.htm
  61. Fosu, A. (1990). Export Composition and the Impact of Exports on Economic Growth of
  62. Developing Economics. Economics Letters(34), 67-71.
  63. Galindo Martin, M. A. (Enero-Febrero de 2011). Crecimiento Económico. Tendencias y
  64. Nuevos Desarrollos de la Teoría Económica ICE(858), 39-55.
  65. Galindo Martín, M. A., & Malgesini, G. (1993). Crecimiento económico: principales teorías
  66. desde Keynes. Madrid: McGraw-Hill.
  67. Ghatak, S., Milner, C. R., & Utkulu, U. (1997). Exports, Export Composition and Growth:
  68. Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia. Applied Economics, 29(2), 213-223.
  69. Ghirmay, T., Grabowski, R., & Sharma, S. C. (2001). Exports, inevestent, efficiency and
  70. economic growth in LDC: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics, 689-700.
  71. Greenaway, D., & Sapsford, D. (1994). What does Liberalisation do for Exports and Growth?
  72. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130(1), 152-174.
  73. Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy.
  74. MIT Press.
  75. Harrod, R. F. (1939). An Essay in Dinamic Theory. The Economic Journal, 14-33.
  76. Harrod, R. F. (1948). Towards a Dynamic Economics. Londres: MacMillan.
  77. Heller, P. S., & Porter, R. C. (1978). Exports and Growth: An Empirical Re-investigation.
  78. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 191-193.
  79. Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade. MIT Press.
  80. Instituto de Promoción de Exportaciones e Inversiones . (2014). Informe Mensual de
  81. Comercio e Inversión - Junio 2014. Quito: Dirección de Inteligencia Comercial e Inversiones,
  82. PRO ECUADOR.
  83. Jordaan, A. C., & Eita, J. H. (2007). Export and Economic Growth in Namibia: A Granger
  84. Causality Analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 75(3).
  85. Jung, W. S., & Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries.
  86. Journal of Development Economics, 1-12.
  87. Kavoussi, R. (1984). Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence.
  88. Journal of Development Economics, 14(1), 241-250.
  89. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. United
  90. Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan.
  91. Kristjanpoller, W. R., & Olson, J. E. (January-February de 2014). Economic Growth in Latin
  92. American Countries: Is it based on Export-Led or Import-Led Growth. Emerging Markets
  93. Finance & Trade, 50(1), 6-20.
  94. Krueger, A. (1985). Import Substitution Versus Export Promotion. Finance and Development,
  95. (2), 20-23.
  96. Krueger, A. O. (May de 1980). Trade Policy as an Input to Development. The American
  97. Economic Review, 70(2), 288-292.
  98. Kuznest, S. (June de 1973). Modern Economic Growth: Finding and Reflections. American
  99. Economic Review, 63(3), 247-258.
  100. Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern Economic Growth. Yale University Press.
  101. Lussier, M. (1991). Impacts of Exports on Economic Performance: A Comparative Study.
  102. Journal of African Economies, 2(1), 106-127.
  103. Mallick, S. K. (1996). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in India: Evidence
  104. from Cointegration based Error-correction Model. Indian Journal of Economics, 76(302),
  105. -320.
  106. Malthus, T. R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: J. Johnson.
  107. Matsuyama, K. (1992). Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic
  108. Growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 317-334.
  109. McNab, R., & Moore, R. (1998). Trade Policy, Export Expansion, Human Capital and
  110. Growth. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 7(2), 237-256.
  111. Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Develoing
  112. Countries? A Case Study of Costa Rica. United Nations Conference on Trade and
  113. Development, Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series.
  114. Michaely, M. (1977). Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of
  115. Development Economics, 4, 49-53.
  116. Ministerio Coordinador de Política Económica. (2014). Indicadores Macroeconómicos
  117. Mayo 2014. Quito: Ministerio Coordinador de Política Económica.
  118. Ministerio de Comercio Exterior. (2014). Boletín Mnesual de Comercio Exterior. Quito:
  119. Dirección de Inteligencia Comercial e Inversiones.
  120. Nowak-Lehmann, F., Herzer, D., & Siliverstovs, B. (2005). Export-Led Growth in Chile:
  121. Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth. Proceedings of the
  122. German Development Economics Conference. Kiel.
  123. Ogbokor, C. A. (2005). Time Series Evidence For Export-Led Growth Paradigm: A Case
  124. Study Of Zimbabwe. Journal of Social Sciences, 1(2), 77-80.
  125. Organización Mundial del Comercio. (2014). Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2014.
  126. Parida, P. C., & Sahoo, P. (2007). Export-Led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration
  127. Analysis. Interntional Economic Journal, 21(2), 155-175.
  128. Ram, M. (1976). Trade - An Engine of Economic Growth: The case of India during the
  129. Planning Period. The Indian Journal of Economics, 56, 401-410.
  130. Ram, R. (1985). Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence. Economic
  131. Development and Cultural Change, 415-425.
  132. Ram, R. (1987). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from
  133. Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 51-63.
  134. Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth. Journal of Political
  135. Economy, 500-521.
  136. Reyes, S., & Jiménez, S. (julio-diciembre de 2012). Composición de las exportaciones y
  137. crecimiento económico en la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Lecturas de Economía(77),
  138. -90.
  139. Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: John
  140. Murray.
  141. Riezman, R. G., Whiteman, C. H., & Summers, P. M. (1991). The Engine of Gorwth or Its
  142. Handmaiden? A time-series Assessment of Export-Led Growth. Empirical Economics, 21(1),
  143. -110.
  144. Roberto, C., Kaltani, L., & Loaysa, N. (2009). Openness can be good for growth: the role of
  145. policy complementarities. Journal of Development Economics, 33-49.
  146. Sahni, P., & Atri, P. V. (July de 2012). Export-Led Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation.
  147. International Journal of Marketing and Technology, 2(7), 283-298.
  148. Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Oxford University Press.
  149. Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo. (2012). Transformación de la Matriz
  150. Productiva: Revolución productiva a través del conocimiento y el talento humano. Quito:
  151. SENPLADES.
  152. Serrano, L. (1998). Capital Humano, Estructura Sectorial y Crecimiento en las Regiones
  153. Españolas. Valencia: Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A.
  154. Sharma, S. S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Is Economic Grwoth Export-Led or Import-Led in the
  155. Oacific Island Countries? Evidence from Panel Data Models. Melbourne: Discussion Paper
  156. DEVDP 09-15, Development Research Unit, Monash University.
  157. Sharma, S., & Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal Analyses Betweem Exports and Economic Growth
  158. in Developing Countries. Applied Economic, 26(12), 1145-1157.
  159. Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Londres:
  160. W. Strahan & T. Cadell .
  161. Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of
  162. Economics, 65-94.
  163. Tsen, W. H. (2010). Exports, Domestic Demand, and Economic Growth in China: Granger
  164. Causality Analysis. Review of Development Economics, 14(3), 625-639.
  165. Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical
  166. Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 9(1), 121-130.
  167. Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical
  168. Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 9(1), 121-130.
  169. Ukpolo, V. (1994). Export Composition and Growth of Selected Low-Income African
  170. Countries: evidence from time series data. Applied Economics(26), 445-449.
  171. Vohra, R. (2001). Exports and Economic Growth: Further Time series Evidence from Less
  172. Developed Countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 7.

El derecho de autor se conserva en los autores de la revista. Garantían también su derecho para publicar artículos científicos e investigativos. Todos los artículos están reconocidos a través de una licencia de reconocimiento de Creative Commons, donde permite compartir a terceros, siempre y cuando indique al autor y la primera publicación de la revista empresarial, sin fines comerciales.

Los autores se rigen a las diferentes normas de la licencia de no exclusiva, para distribución de la versión en obras publicadas, siempre y cuando se indique la primera publicación de la revista empresarial.

 

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.